After photovoltaic (PV) PPAs have already established themselves in Southern Europe in recent years, the ball is rolling in Germany as well. While current market conditions indicate that PV PPAs will play an increasingly important role in the course of the energy transition, the question of “fair value” – the price that is fair to all sides – is increasingly being asked. It quickly becomes clear that consistent, long term electricity market scenarios are indispensable when assessing key performance indicators.
The fact that the expansion of wind power in Germany struggles is shown by the results of the tender of August 2019. Meanwhile, e-mobility is making inroads in Germany. A law for supporting the structural change for the coal region is formulated and only needs to be passed. Besides that prices on the futures market in August 2019 were pointing downwards.
With the current “EU Energy Outlook 2050” Energy Brainpool shows long-term trends in Europe. Climate change and aging power plants are forcing the European Union and many countries to change their energy policies. In addition, there are market changes. What do these developments mean for electricity prices, revenue potential and risks for photovoltaics and wind?
The German Federal Court of Justice confirmed lower returns for grid operators, while renewable energies were on record course in the first half of 2019. Associations and politicians discuss the various possibilities for CO2 pricing. There was also a strong upward trend on the prices side in July 2019.
While the tender for PV delivered lower prices in June 2019, there will be delays on the climate policy front. The details of a possible CO2-pricing and a climate-based tax reform are not to be announced until autumn. On the other hand, the second progress report on the energy transition makes it clear that many of the energy transition targets will not be achieved at the current rate of developments. While the spot market turned negative for several hours, the prices at the long end are falling with coal and gas.
The bid values increased in the first tenders in Germany for renewable energies in 2019. In contrast, CO2-limits for new cars and trucks are intended to reduce the emissions of the EU. New German power lines and power-to-gas plants should be easier to set up and plan. On the price side, the trend in April 2019 was mainly upwards. The exception: Easter holidays brought many negative prices.
At the end of March 2019, the European Parliament has given green light to the last regulations and directives of the “Clean Energy Package”. Both in Berlin and in Hamburg, the re-communalisation of energy infrastructures is imminent. While renewable energies can show new records in March, the high time of storage just starts. At the long and the short end of the electricity market, prices went down in March 2019.
In the coming years, PPAs and non-subsidised renewables will also come to Germany. This became clear in February 2019. In addition, the transmission system operators have published the first draft of the new network development plan for 2030. The expansion of the grid will become more expensive. While the tender values for Photovoltaics (PV) and wind remained high in the first tender in 2019, the long-term prices on the futures market declined in February.