In the second part of the World Energy Outlook 2020 blog series, we provide a detailed overview of the significantly adjusted development expectations for the global oil, gas and coal markets. For this, we use our fundamental model Power2Sim. The model allows us to quantitatively estimate the long-term effects on European power prices until 2040 as well as the sales revenues of renewable energies.
Just in time for the 20th anniversary of the German renewable energy law (EEG) a new amendment is currently being discussed. It is to be passed before the end of this year and is to come into force on January 1, 2021. In this article we explain the most important changes.
While tenders for onshore wind continue to be undersubscribed, there are indications of an amendment of the German renewable energy law in fall this year. At the same time, the first tender for the shutdown of hard coal-fired power plants was launched in August. At the long end, prices in August 2020 rose along with commodities.
There has been little change in the tenders for renewable energies: PV was oversubscribed whereas wind was undersubscribed. However, June 2020 brought news on the legal and political front. Prices at the long end are pointing upwards again more strongly in June 2020.
Even if European countries have retracted Corona measures, the pandemic still has a major impact on energy policies and markets. PV beats wind in joint tenders and policy makers have agreed on changes for PV and wind. At the long end prices, stabilised or even went up again in May 2020.
While the world looks in surprise at negative prices on the oil markets, these have long been familiar to participants on the electricity market. However, the market results on the electricity exchanges are also anything but normal now: For the first time ever, the price for a baseload delivery falls below zero on a working day.
The results of the tenders for renewable energies were almost predictable. Minimum distances for wind parks and the 52-GW cap for PV remain contentious issues. The figures for the storage sector for 2019 are consistently positive. The effects of the global spread of the new corona virus are particularly noticeable in the energy sector on the price side.
In the second part of this blog series, we elaborate on the links between the coronavirus pandemic and energy markets. Specifically, we examine the possible medium-term consequences for the front years 2021 to 2025 on Europe’s electricity markets due to the coronavirus and the turbulences on the oil market. We conducted the analysis using the fundamental model Power2Sim.