With the current “EU Energy Outlook 2060”, Energy Brainpool shows long-term trends in Europe. The European energy system will change dramatically in the coming decades. In addition to climate change and an outdated power plant fleet, current geopolitical tensions are also forcing the European Union and many countries to change their energy policies. What do these developments mean for power prices, revenue potential and risks for photovoltaics and wind?
Energy markets remain in turmoil in July 2022 due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, with prices in the short-term and futures markets fluctuating as a result of new developments. Energy company Gazprom cuts supplies by half. To reduce Germany’s dependence on Russian gas, there are plans to bring back hard coal and oil-fired power plants that are waiting in the grid reserve. The Bundestag initiated a new amendment to the Renewable Energy Sources Act, where the expansion targets for renewable energies were raised.
The German Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Habeck has declared the second of three warning levels of the Emergency Gas Plan. Besides that, the EU Parliament agreed on a reform of emissions trading. Finally yet importantly, the tenders for onshore wind turbines were unsubscribed for the first time in three bidding rounds. A bullish mood prevails on the short-term markets as well as on the futures markets.
The energy markets remain in turmoil because of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Besides that, the short-term and futures markets continue to react to new developments with price fluctuations. With the REPower package, the EU is outlining a path to independence from Russian fossil fuels towards the accelerated expansion of renewable energy sources. In addition, the Federal Network Agency has announced the results of the tenders for second segment solar plants and the innovation tender.
After comparing the German and French energy systems, we now look at the number three and four in the EU: Italy and Spain. Both countries have a power plant fleet and electricity generation of similar size. However, Italy’s power generation is based on natural gas, while Spain generates larger shares of its electricity from wind power and nuclear power. A look at the figures below reveals similarities and differences.
The energy systems of the two largest EU countries differ. A comparison of the electricity sectors in particular shows the contrasts. Electricity generation in France is dominated by nuclear power, which accounts for almost 70 percent, while Germany’s electricity mix relies on coal and natural gas as fossil fuels for one-third of the total. Follow us in this article as we explore the differences between the two energy systems.
Just by looking at the primary energy consumption of the two countries, the differences between France and Germany become clear. France’s primary energy consumption of about 10000 PJ was for many years about one third lower than that of Germany. However, in addition to the higher economic output, the high shares of coal-fired power generation in Germany also played an important role.
Due to the war in Ukraine, February 22 was characterised by strong price movements on the short-term and futures markets. The certification of Nord Stream 2 has now been finally suspended. Due to the current high energy prices, the German government is already abolishing the EEG levy in the middle of this year. In addition, while the nuclear phase-out is scheduled for the end of this year in Germany, further nuclear power plants are being planned in France.
An early coal phase-out, 80 percent renewable energies by 2030, and climate neutrality by 2045: These are the three energy industry cornerstones of the German government’s ambitious plans in the coalition agreement. Implementing the contents of two legislative packages is on the agenda this year.