The year 2022 is primarily dominated by the Russian-Ukrainian war. The resulting geopolitical changes caused a state of emergency on the power markets this year. However, the framework conditions for the energy industry will not be the same in the future: energy security, diversification as well as efficiency and savings measures are coming to the fore. In the short term, energy prices in the EU have risen to record levels. The consumption of natural gas in Germany has already been reduced year-on-year. In the coming months, it will remain important to keep an eye on gas import volumes and the filling levels of storage facilities.
With the current “EU Energy Outlook 2060”, Energy Brainpool shows long-term trends in Europe. The European energy system will change dramatically in the coming decades. In addition to climate change and an outdated power plant fleet, current geopolitical tensions are also forcing the European Union and many countries to change their energy policies. What do these developments mean for power prices, revenue potential and risks for photovoltaics and wind?
In August 2022, the energy market shows price records in short-term trading due to news about the Nordstream 1 pipeline. Price records are also set on the futures market. The traffic light coalition puts together a third relief package. The introduction of the gas procurement levy leads to a heated discussion.
Energy markets remain in turmoil in July 2022 due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, with prices in the short-term and futures markets fluctuating as a result of new developments. Energy company Gazprom cuts supplies by half. To reduce Germany’s dependence on Russian gas, there are plans to bring back hard coal and oil-fired power plants that are waiting in the grid reserve. The Bundestag initiated a new amendment to the Renewable Energy Sources Act, where the expansion targets for renewable energies were raised.
The German Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Habeck has declared the second of three warning levels of the Emergency Gas Plan. Besides that, the EU Parliament agreed on a reform of emissions trading. Finally yet importantly, the tenders for onshore wind turbines were unsubscribed for the first time in three bidding rounds. A bullish mood prevails on the short-term markets as well as on the futures markets.
After comparing the major European countries, this post is about two smaller ones: Portugal and Denmark. Both are pioneers in renewable energy. However, Denmark outperforms the larger Portugal where natural gas still plays a significant role, as a look at the figures shows. Both countries have ambitious energy and climate targets for 2030.
After comparing the German and French energy systems, we now look at the number three and four in the EU: Italy and Spain. Both countries have a power plant fleet and electricity generation of similar size. However, Italy’s power generation is based on natural gas, while Spain generates larger shares of its electricity from wind power and nuclear power. A look at the figures below reveals similarities and differences.
Due to the ongoing war situation between Russia and Ukraine, there is no relief in sight on the energy market. Firstly, Europe is imposing new sanctions against Russia and looking for alternative suppliers for gas and coal. Secondly, the federal government has presented a new package of measures with support aid for energy-intensive companies. Thirdly, the results of the solar and biomass tenders were announced.