In the second part of the World Energy Outlook 2020 blog series, we provide a detailed overview of the significantly adjusted development expectations for the global oil, gas and coal markets. For this, we use our fundamental model Power2Sim. The model allows us to quantitatively estimate the long-term effects on European power prices until 2040 as well as the sales revenues of renewable energies.
At the beginning of July 2020, both the Coal Exit Act and the Structural Aid Act were finally approved. Both laws were controversially discussed in advance. This article examines the key points of the two new laws.
Coal-fired power generation is sinking, wind is disappointing in tenders for renewable energies and PV is booming, and the National Hydrogen Strategy is making progress – these were the big issues in February.
The coal phase-out has finally been stipulated in a law, even if less ambitious than the coal commission had proposed. The results of the last solar auction in December 2019 have been published and German emissions fell by about 50 million tonnes of CO2 last year. In the first month of 2020, prices at the long end continued to fall.
With the draft of the Coal Exit Law, the Federal Government has not only put the tender procedure for the shutdown of coal capacities on paper. At the same time, changes were announced for renewable energies. According to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2019, global CO2 emissions might rise until 2040. In terms of prices, November continues where October left off: going down.
In recent years, the regulatory map of the energy industry has become increasingly complex. Especially for coal-fired power plants, some inconsistencies and contradictions have crept in during the course of parallel legal processes. Here is an attempt to shed some light on the situation.
The latest figures from the Federal Environment Agency make it official. Germany emitted 4.5 percent less CO2 last year. Emissions were thus just over 865 million tonnes. The energy sector and households accounted for the lion’s share of the decline. In this article you will find a summary of Germany’s CO2 balance for the year 2018.
While the tender for PV delivered lower prices in June 2019, there will be delays on the climate policy front. The details of a possible CO2-pricing and a climate-based tax reform are not to be announced until autumn. On the other hand, the second progress report on the energy transition makes it clear that many of the energy transition targets will not be achieved at the current rate of developments. While the spot market turned negative for several hours, the prices at the long end are falling with coal and gas.