1380 MW offshore wind power plants forego state subsidies. According to the experts at Energy Brainpool, the average revenue for non-subsidized offshore wind farms will grow from around 53 EUR/MWh in 2025 to around 76 EUR/MWh in 2035.
The results of the first tender for offshore wind power plants show that some suppliers are convinced that they can operate offshore wind power plants economically without any state funding. In total, Dong Energy and EnBW offered 1380 MW of offshore wind capacity at a price of 0 cent/kWh. Current power price scenarios from Energy Brainpool model the expected average revenues of offshore wind energy plants in Germany by 2050 in three sensitivities: standard, conservative and progressive. The range of results in the period 2025-2035 is shown below.
Source: Energy Brainpool
In the standard scenario, a wind power plant at sea can achieve average revenues of 52.60 EUR/MWh in 2025. According to experts, this can rise to 76 EUR/MWh by 2035. The average revenues are given in the indices “sales value”, developed by Energy Brainpool. Furthermore, the quantities which can be profitably earned by a non-subsidized plant must be taken into account. Subsidized wind turbines also offer at negative prices due to the fixed remuneration of the subsidy rate. Non-subsidized plants, on the other hand, switch off at negative prices in order to avoid losses. As a result of the large proportion of subsidized plants in the German electricity system, negative electricity prices are likely to occur more frequently in the future, according to the Energy Brainpool scenarios. For this reason, a non-subsidized plant has to switch off more frequently and cannot sell all quantities. This value is determined by Energy Brainpool as the “sales volume”. In the standard scenario, the sales volume amounts to 95% of the annual production during the years 2025-2035. This risk must be taken into account when looking at the revenues of non-subsidized renewable power plants.
A current white paper from Energy Brainpool explains various price indices for the assessment of electricity market revenues from fluctuating renewable energy sources and illustrates the specially developed parameter of the sales revenues.
