The energy consumption of China is projected to reach its peak with 3.75 billion TOE in 2035. In addition, the share of gas in the energy supply is about to double by 2020.
Article sources with kind recommendations of the Sino-German Energy Partnership of GIZ on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi).
According to a study of the China National Petroleum Corp. Economics & Technology Research Institute the maximum consumption of conventional energy carriers will already be reached in 2030 and amount to 2.93 billion TOE. China’s energy mix is to become cleaner as well: The share of non-fossil energy sources of 12 percent is to grow to 30 percent by 2050. While coal will still be the dominant source of energy in 2050, its share might fall from current 64 percent to 37 percent. Simultaneously, renewables and gas will take up larger parts of the supply. The Chinese government aims to increase the share non-fossil energy carriers in the primary energy consumption to 15 percent by 2020.
The demand for gas experienced strong growth since the beginning of this year. This is largely due to price reductions for gas enforced by the government, which should help gas to replace coal in the energy mix. In 2015 China already consumed 35 percent more gas than anticipated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Figure 1: Chinas gas consumption vs. gas production (source: Energy Brainpool)
Currently, gas is the raw material with the highest growth rates in China. According to the plans of the central government the share of gas in the country’s energy mix is to double to 10 percent within the next five years. The gas grid will also be extended to more than 60000 km during that time in order to accommodate gas transport capacities of about 180 billion cubic meter.
